Japan rethinking space program
Commercial struggles prompting 'new strategies'

TANEGASHIMA, Japan (AP) --To a round of excited applause, Japan's fifth H2-A rocket -- black and orange, with a bold "Nippon" emblazoned on its side -- blasted off from the sprawling space center on this remote, rocky island last month.

The 180-foot rocket represents the height of Japan's technological prowess and its membership in the small club of nations able to reach space.

But despite five successful launches in a row, Japanese space officials are finding little cause to cheer these days.

The H2-A has yet to find a place in the commercial launching market, and perhaps never will. Funds for government orders are scarce in Japan's sluggish economy. And the use of an H2-A to launch Japan's first spy satellites into orbit last month marked for many an ominous departure from Japan's policy of using its space program for peaceful purposes.

"The last five launches have been a success, technologically speaking," said Hiroshi Maeda, professor emeritus of aeronautical engineering at Kyoto University. "But it's an uphill road from here forward."

Under intense budgetary pressures, the National Space Development Agency will be merged with other government space-related agencies later this year. In two years, the construction of rockets and launch services will be farmed out to the private sector.

"This year is very important, very crucial," said Shuichiro Yamanouchi, president of the National Space Development Agency. "We have almost ended the catch-up phase. We must now build up new strategies."

Successful past
Japan has reason to be proud of its achievements in space.

Its "Nozomi" probe, launched in 1998, flew past the moon twice and is due to reach Mars next year. Its probes have flown by Halley's Comet and helped glean significant X-ray astronomy data.

But the centerpiece of the program has long been the development of rockets, culminating with the H2-A.

Japan had 29 consecutive successful liftoffs before its first H2-A prototype. All five H2-A launches have been successful, though one probe failed to achieve its proper orbit after it was released.

"We are very proud to say the H2-A is a very competitive rocket in the world market," Yamanouchi said.

Yet even if Japan succeeds in getting into the commercial launch business, it is likely to be looking at the leftovers of a market dominated by the United States, Russia and Europe.

"There were only 20 launches in 2002; it's only a $2 billion market on the world level," Yamanouchi said. "It will not be easy to get into this shrinking market."

Setbacks in shuttle, space station programs hurt
Other aspects of the program are on shaky ground as well.

After the United States, Japan is the second-largest financial backer of the International Space Station. But that program has been thrown into doubt by the grounding of all U.S. space shuttles following the disintegration of the Columbia on February 1.

Japan is building five major components for the space station, including an external robotic arm and a medical lab. It has committed $2.6 billion -- or one-fifth the cost.

The halt in the shuttle program also hurts Japan's efforts to rally taxpayers behind its space program.

Japanese astronaut Soichi Noguchi was to fly on NASA's next shuttle mission to the space station. He would have been the fifth Japanese to ride a shuttle, helping to spur public interest.

"Japan's space program will not have any commercial benefits anytime soon," said Shinya Aihara, an analyst at Fuji Research Institute Corp. in Tokyo. "Given the state of the economy, the government will have to convince taxpayers of its merits to push ahead."

Meanwhile, other space projects have been shelved or pushed back.

Glitches have postponed the launch of Muses-C, an asteroid probe, until next month. Lunar-A, a probe to the moon that was scheduled to be launched last year, most likely won't take off until next year at the earliest.

Yamanouchi and other officials say a major drawback for the space program has been the lack of military funding, though that may be changing.

Japanese officials have grown increasingly anxious about communist North Korea's development of nuclear weapons and its improving missile capability.

After North Korea launched a long-range missile over Japanese territory in 1998, Japan poured $2 billion into a surveillance program that will involve the launching of at least four spy satellites over the next two years.

The launch of the first two satellites atop an H2-A rocket on March 28 drew protest from North Korea, which accused Japan of starting an arms race in East Asia.

The military overtones of the launch, and its regional reverberations, also raised concerns at home.

"The government definitely should not deviate from its basic defense policy," the Asahi, a major newspaper, said in an editorial. "The government should explain to other countries, including North Korea, that Japan will devote its satellite capabilities to defensive purposes only."

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